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Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts vs. Weather Forecasters |
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NO TRANSLATION AVAILABLE
Tadeusz Tyszka, Piotr Zielonka, Centre for Market Psychology of Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management Warszawa (Poland)ABSTRACT Two groups of experts, financial analysts and weather forecasters - were asked to predict corresponding events (the value of the Stock Exchange Index and the average temperature of the next month). While accounting for inaccurate judgments, weather forecasters attach more importance to the probabilistic nature of the events predicted than financial analysts. Although both groups of experts revealed the overconfidence effect, this effect was significantly higher among financial analysts than among the weather forecasters. These results are discussed from the perspective of learning from experience. Key words: experts, judgments, forecasts |
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Propensity Towards Risk: One or Many? |
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NO TRANSLATION AVAILABLE
Tadeusz Tyszka, Centre for Market Psychology of Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management
Artur Domurat, Faculty of Psychology, Warsaw University ABSTRACTIn the present research we investigate actual behavior in risky situations in different domains - investments, gambling, insurance, medical checkups, etc. The purpose of the study was to determine whether the individual's propensity to engage in risky activities depends on the domain or not. A questionnaire about risky types of behavior in several domains was administered to 826 people. The results of factor analyses revealed that four uncorrelated types of risk can be distinguished, associated with four values: health, money, prestige, security. Thus, we should speak of not one but many risk propensities. The distinction of four instead of one risk propensity was also supported by other findings of the study. For example, we compared those more vs. less active in investments and found that the more active were more risk prone in financial risk. Yet, at the same time they tended to be less risk prone in insurance behavior (security risk) than the other group. Keywords: risk propensity, risk taking. |
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Proverbs as Recommendations Regarding Risk Taking |
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NO TRANSLATION AVAILABLE
Krzysztof Przybyszewski, Centre for Market Psychology of L. Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship Management
Tadeusz Tyszka, Centre for Market Psychology of L. Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship Management, Institute of Psychology, PAN
Hanna Ulatowska, Callier Center for Communication Disorders University of Texas at Dallas
William K. Spence, Callier Center for Communication Disorders University of Texas at Dallas ABSTRACT This research focuses on how people evaluate proverbs as recommendations about risk taking. In Study 1 we found that each of the proverbs presented without a context activated its favorite context. In Study 2 we discovered that when a scenario involved risk, the advice given in proverbs was not rated very high. We also found that the acceptance of advice given in antonymous proverbs was inconsistent. In Study 3 it was found that the rating of a proverb without any context was typically better than the rating of the same proverb when a context was provided. It was also found that the advice given by a proverb was rated no higher than was a direct recommendation. The inconsistency of ratings was found to be higher for proverbs than for direct recommendations, and (2) for the proverbs in the context of concrete scenarios than for the same proverbs given without any scenario. |
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Working Papers
